I had some technical questions regarding your latest Daily Habits update…..
1. On the 1M for news impact releases, if there is a sizeable gap….like for example between the 8:29 am Eastern time 1 minute candle close and the 1M candle open on the 8:30 am candle when the news drops…like can happen sometimes for high impact news releases like NFP, will you measure from the close of the prior minute bar before the release? Or still start from the actual minute bar of the release bar’s high/low?
2. I assume you’re putting text on the chart using MT4, with either the “text” button or “text label” button?
3. For habit #11 – what if it comes out better than exp. but is still a bad number, only not as bad as the market was expecting? In other words, are you basing it on the overall number (for example, if it’s above 50 like around 50.8 in the ISM data, signaling expansion but if the market forecast was 52.0…so it was disappointing…would you put this this under “expansion” or contraction”? Or what if it’s a good number (say 52.4 so it beats market expectations, but it was down big from last month, say, 58.4)?
4. Where are you getting 1M data for Stocks and Bonds?
5. Habit #5 – when you go back and identify what caused a market to move from UNSCHEDULED information using IFR….are y
ou first going thru all the charts identifying a large sustainable move and THEN going to IFR to see what news came out at that time?
1. If there is a gap on the 1 minute chart, then I will measure from the close of the bar 1 minute prior to the news release. I consider the gap very much part of the FM spike. For example, if GBP/USD is trading at 1.5020 before NFP, then when NFP comes out the price gaps to 1.5050, and opens at 1.5050, then rises to 1.5100 by the high of the FM spike, then I will NOT write in: +50 pips FM. I will write in +80 pips FM.
The reason being because the market was trading at 1.5020 before the release of the news.
2. I use the “text” function” on MT4. That stays in the general area much better than “text label”, although it is not perfect if you switch the time frames, etc.
3. I usually use the forecast numbers. Like for today: Monday, June 3, 2013: I recorded the Spanish, Italian PMI’s, the SVME PMI, the GBP PMI, the US ISM. If it is too close to the forecast number, then it can be negligible and I just avoid it. Like if the number is forecasted at 52.0 and it came out at 52.3, then I don’t care about it.
So in the case of the ISM example you gave, if it comes out below expectations, but it is still above 50.0, I would still put it in the contraction column.
4. I get the futures data from Interactive Brokers
5. For the unscheduled market information, what I am looking for: If I felt there was an intraday movement (either gradual or very volatile) that I could not explain through my other habits and scenario sheets, then I will investigate further. Like if a market moves 100 pips, and with my other habits and sheets, I am clueless as to why the market moved, then I will investigate further – by looking at the IFR flash alerts, the currency briefings, the squawk box, etc.