Quick question, flash GDP q/q released this morning 10GMT or 5EST. Was a down spike of -22 FM and then sort of stalled out. Not the clean down move as the GBP inflation report( was a very profitable one at that). Now the release just happened to occur as I see it the stops of the Feb. 8,11,and 12 were run. I know that Reuters and Bloomberg are saying the bad French and German prelim GDP Q/Q are causing the bearish sentiment, yet as I see it NMI on the French Prelim GDP. The German prelim Q/Q +12 FM NMI just stops running the 1.3400 level. i know the sentiment is bearish for the day on EUR but it looks more like a stop run day since the market is waiting on the G20 currency exchange rates.
Just making sure I am on the right path on my analysis.
Finding I am dramatically reducing the amount of trades I make and the ones I make have been more profitable.
Yes, it was a -22 spike lower, then kind of stalled out. But that was because the EUR/USD was already down 80 pips or so, so any fresh bearish macro orders were fighting with the profit taking interest and potential exhaustion of the down move, so it kind of stalled out.
Even though the French was NMI, with that bad data, there could be macro sell limit orders stacked on the topside, so it would be foolish to try to push EUR/USD higher in the face of that data. Also, I think there was some bearish French Finance minister comments.
The move started with the stops below 1.3428 getting tripped on the bad French data, then bad German data added fresh macro sellers. I actually shorted it at 1.3380 ish like an idiot instead of waiting for a retracement.
The perfect time to short it came on the retracement to 1.3410, where further bad Italian data was released, so you could of shorted it on the ret, with a fresh macro catalyst, and really nailed it with high leverage, then covered when the stops below 1.3355 were tripped.
No, it wasn’t just a stop run in my opinion. There are legitimate macro sellers that could last for 1 day or so (ODVE). If there is bad GDP data from EZ, then that reinforces the perception that the EUR might be too strong and is hurting growth, and perhaps the EUR could come down. Now that being said, the market could shrug it off as it was data from last year, and the economic conditions may have been more favorable over the past two months of the new year.